CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-17T10:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-17T10:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40624/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source is likely an eruption from Active Region 14179 (S17W15) starting around 2025-08-17T09:15Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 from the eruption site, and a clear deflection to the southeast can be observed. There is a coronal hole northeast of the eruption site which likely accounts for this deflection. Additionally, brightening can be observed from Active Region 14180 around 2025-08-17T09:15Z but it is unclear if this is related to the observed CME or not.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-20T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40626/1 Model Inputs: 2025-08-17T10:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-11.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=468.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2025-08-17T16:36Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-20T16:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=4 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-20T14:00Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-19T10:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250817_163600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 71.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-17T16:40Z
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